Brian M Downing
The US is more divided, polarized, and antagonistic than at any time since Lee handed his sword to Grant. Conflicts over history, sexual identity, spending priorities, toleration, speech, abortion, and gun control plague political institutions and public civility. Presidential elections are only rarely landslides these days and when they are, it’s due to the winner-take-all Electoral College system, not overwhelming popular support. Majorities in Congress are neither large nor lasting.
The House is so divided against itself and reconciliation so unlikely that it might not long endure. We live in an era of dissolution of states and violent domestic strife. A scenario is unfolding that may bring those dire processes about. In a decade or so a new majority will emerge – one that solidifies control of Congress, the White House, and in time the Court. Demographic trends suggest that it will be left-of-center.
Political trends suggest that it will not be disposed to seeking reconciliation with the conservative minority. It will be more likely to govern in a majoritarian manner that marginalizes conservatism, both politically and culturally – illiberal America. If demographic trends favored conservatives, they would govern in the same dismissive, heavy-handed way. That is the political landscape and there is no reconciliation in sight.
Demography
A handful of states are shifting from reliably Red or contested to Blue. Virginia and N Carolina have seen growth in government and hi-tech populations which tilts them away from the Red side. In a decade they may be firmly in the Blue camp. The rise in hi-tech and government populations in those states is unlikely to abate.
The American population is shifting away from its traditional makeup and becoming more and more Latino, Middle Eastern, African, and South Asian. While many of them hold conservative social values and own businesses, they nonetheless identify more with liberal politics. Conservatives once supported less-restrictive immigration policies from Latin America to lower labor costs and bring in social conservatives amenable to their own positions. However, the new citizens have long disappointed conservative strategists. Over the last quarter century the Latin vote has gone 60-70% to Blue presidential candidates. The present administration has done nothing to turn this around.
Conservatives are watching demographic and electoral trends in Texas with great concern. The state has been as solidly Red in recent decades as it was part of the old Solid South that Democrats banked on since Reconstruction. As hi-tech, government, and Latino populations continue to grow, Texas may be hotly contested in coming election cycles and reliably Blue in only a decade or two.
With California, New York, and Texas in the liberal camp, and perhaps Florida as well, conservatives will be hard-pressed to win the White House. Those four states presently have 151 of the 270 electoral votes – over half those needed to determine the presidency. Only a handful of other states need fall in line but there are well over twenty reliably Blue states.
Conservatives may have to retreat to holding on to power in a dozen or two states, most of them lightly- or moderately- populated in the South and Midwest. Alternately, they may have to count on the opposition’s blinders and scandals to see one of their own inaugurated. Of course, both sides are capable of grievous missteps.
(Next: the ideology and temperament of the newest Left and their moral imperatives)
© 2019 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.