Brian M Downing
Presidents Trump and Xi have bickered over trade for two years. The US claims China has excessive trade surpluses, manipulates its currency, and steals intellectual property. The bickering seems to be escalating into a trade war. However, there’s so little consistency in Washington today that a ceasefire could come with little notice.
The conflict is taking place in the context of a rising power seeking to supplant a dominant one that’s in turmoil and in one side’s estimation, in decline as well. China may respond in more than place. Hopefully, the administration knows this. However, its national security team lacks understanding of geopolitics and has an aberrant predilection with Iran.
Beijing’s perspective
After two centuries of weakness, which western powers, including the US, exploited, China is determined to restore itself as the center of the world – economically, diplomatically, and culturally. China has made great strides, especially economically. Its factories produce goods bought around the world. Its engineers build ports and railroads in developing countries. Soon its ships will ply the Northwest Passage and its trains will connect Central Asia to Europe.
Beijing sees this as natural, just, and inevitable. Rulers and ruled have formed an ideology to understand the unfolding of events. It sees the US trying to keep China from reaching its place and slow down its own decline. Today, Washington is using tariffs, Tomorrow, more forceful measures may come. Beijing will make moves – soon.
North Korea
The view here has been that the Trump administration will never get the North to give up its nuclear weapons and that the dialog could well be a ruse. The North will renew its belligerence, rankling the US and raising tensions to the levels of two years ago. China will step in and get the North to relent.
The message will be clear. Washington can no longer provide security in East Asia. Indeed, it is resorting to reckless militarism to hide its declining power. Beijing alone can keep North Korea in line and East Asia secure. The North has already restarted some missile testing and in coming months it could press things further –with Beijing’s blessing if not insistence.
Iran
Beijing, like many parts of the world, is baffled by Washington’s Iran policy. Iran has been compliant with the JCPOA, American allies are not on board, and the conflict is driving a wedge between the US and longstanding allies, especially in East Asia. Beijing sees an opportunity to further demonstrate America’s fading power.
It may embark on a diplomatic program to ease tensions and get the US to back down, perhaps by convincing Iran to make token concessions on inspections or missile tests. This will increase China’s standing in the world, underscore the distance between the US and allies, and establish Beijing’s presence in the Gulf which is of course a major source of oil.
The EU is looking to establish a banking system that will circumvent US sanctions on Iran. China wants its financial institutions and currency to become world standards.
More muscular actions include sending warships to Iranian ports or announcing sizable arms deals. Beijing’s supersonic Sizzler missiles would endanger every ship in the Gulf, civilian and military. The US could no longer consider it an American lake – the Mediterranean of the Islamic world.
Venezuela
Chinese warships could also visit ports in the Caribbean and take part in joint exercises with Maduro’s navy. Russia has already done so. China is more interested in longer term goals. It’s investing in Venezuela’s moribund oil industry and working with Russia to replace Maduro’s cronies with competent personnel.
With oil production up to potential, Venezuela could strategically – and more judiciously – disburse money to build a league of Latin American states opposed to US domination and receptive to Russian and Chinese interests.
South Asia
Pakistan is eager to retaliate, in some way, against India for its semi-annexation of its claim in Kashmir. Over the years Pakistan has infiltrated guerrillas across the Line of Control and even struck inside India itself, as at Mumbai in 2008.
China will not cooperate. Such retaliation would involve personnel trained by al Qaeda in Pakistani-supported parts of Afghanistan, where Uighurs train to strike China one day. Beijing wants to neutralize India as a threat and US ally by integrating it into the Chinese co-prosperity sphere.
A more likely move would be to step in to ease tensions, as in the Persian Gulf. Here too, Beijing would be enhancing its prestige as a world power at Washington’s expense. Diplomacy will prove tough. India is unlikely to back down on Kashmir and the Pakistani generals yearn for vengeance against the country that’s bested them repeatedly since independence.
© 2019 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.