Brian M Downing
Over the last decade, Vladimir Putin has embarked on a program of reasserting his country’s power prestige, often at the expense of the United States. Russian naval and air assets menace US ships and planes. The Crimea has been invaded and annexed, the eastern Ukraine is halfway there.
After losing Libya (to the US and NATO, in Putin’s eyes), Russia was eager to keep Syria. He rushed in advisors, weapons, and money. He outmaneuvered the US on the use of chemical weapons and allowed Damascus to use them on rebel forces and civilians. A new Russian airfield in Syria complements a longstanding naval base nearby.
Putin has greater ambitions in the Middle East than holding up Assad and building an airfield. He wants to spread Russian influence into the Gulf, gain a larger share of the arms market there, and weaken the US as much as possible. However, he now faces conflicting pressures from Syria, Iran, Turkey, and Israel. Putin has run into trouble.
Russia and the Middle East – Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel
Russia’s strongest partner in the region is Iran. Once adamantly opposed to Russia, both under the shah and in the early years of Khomeini, Tehran moved closer to Moscow after the Iraq war (1980-88). The alignment wasn’t based on ideological affinities; radical Islam and Soviet communism/Russian chauvinism are antithetical. Nor did alignment rest easily on geopolitics; Moscow played both sides in the Iran-Iraq conflict and Iran backed the Afghan mujahideen.
Russia and Iran moved closer in the 90s. Later, when the Obama administration’s bid for rapprochement with Iran failed, the Islamic Republic came to rely firmly and almost exclusively on Russia.
Saudi Arabia and the Soviet Union were fierce opponents in the Afghanistan war of the 80s, but more recently Riyadh has improved relations with Moscow. The Saudis began buying arms from Russia – formerly a trade restricted to the US and its western allies. Riyadh thereby gains influence in Moscow and signals the West that it must respect Saudi wishes or risk losing immense revenue – triangulation.
Turkey also triangulates between the US and Russia. Though at daggers drawn in 2015 when Turkey downed a Russian fighter, Ankara has warmed to Moscow. The maneuver shows the US that it cannot take Turkish loyalty for granted, as during the Cold War. Ankara can then more readily support the Muslim Brotherhood, parley with Iran, and stand up to Israel.
Russia has also gained influence in Israel – this after long backing Israel’s enemies. Moscow buys Israeli hi-tech, including drone technology, and owing to a pipeline through Israel, is now positioned to market its oil in eastern Africa and the subcontinent.
Russia hits the wall?
Putin’s positions in Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel constitute a formidable achievement, all the more so as it has come at the expense of the US. This seems to augur well for Putin but these four countries have conflicting interests and that presents problems.
Russian intervention in Syria has defeated the rebels but strained ties with Iran and Israel. Iran wants a rebuilt Syria as an ally against Sunni powers. Israel, however, wants Syria to remain weak and without Iranian troops in it. Israel has struck IRGC and Hisbollah positions inside Syria hundreds of times. Syria and Iran are angry, Russia stays silent, Israel is pleased. Putin cannot placate all three countries.
The Russian campaign in Syria has also angered Riyadh. The Saudis tried to convince Assad to break with Iran, and when that failed they supported armed rebellion. Saudi Arabia (in conjunction with the US and Israel) is trying to convince Putin to rethink support for Iran and allow the country to falter under the weight of sanctions. Once again, Putin cannot please all parties. Nor can he take a step forward without pushback.
Russia’s biggest problem now may be Islamist militancy – already a simmering problem in its Caucasus region and perhaps in Tatar parts of the Crimea. Islamist groups such as ISIL are eager to avenge their losses in Syria by striking back at Russia. Indeed, Russia is replacing the West in the demonology of Islamist narratives.
ISIL is seeking to establish positions in Afghanistan, then strike into the ‘Stans and Russia’s southern periphery. Saudi Arabia and Qatar are supporting the effort – clandestinely, of course. Putin is learning that few interventions in the Middle East work out well – or go unpunished.
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.