Brian M Downing
Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi journalist critical of his government, disappeared shortly after visiting a Saudi consulate in Istanbul. He is not the first Saudi to disappear after criticizing his government. Some have resurfaced, others haven’t.
Mohammed bin Salman, the young ruler of the Kingdom, is consolidating his hold in a manner emulative of Vladimir Putin. This does not augur well for reformists inside Saudi Arabia. It might not augur well for his family’s rule, at least in the long run. How will the world react should Khashoggi resurface in a Saudi prison or remain disappeared? How will the Trump administration handle a serious matter involving a valued ally and trade partner?
The Saudi government
Despite allowing local elections, granting a modicum of women’s rights, and embarking on an ambitious economic development program, Mohammed bin Salman is not placing his country on a path to liberal government. The lesson he learned from the Arab Spring is not that democracy is an inevitable end point in history or even desirable. He learned that dissent leads to turmoil, terrorism, foreign interventions, civil war, and disintegration. The lesson of course coincides neatly with familial interests in holding on to power and wealth.
He is, however, modernizing a highly authoritarian government, taking it from an archaic, semi-theocratic regime to one more like Putin’s, though less tolerant. Western attire and lifestyles will be acceptable, at least to some extent, but criticism will be highly constrained. Failing that, it will be silenced. Blue jeans, perhaps; demonstrations, no.
The message is clear to the prince’s subjects. Khashoggi’s disappearance is a clear signal to liberal reformers, the Muslim Brotherhood faithful, hardcore traditionalists, and Shia minorities. No dissent, especially amid a conflict with Shia enemies.
The international context
Khashoggi’s disappearance took place in Turkey, a country that opposes the spread of Saudi influence in the region. Turkey has long supported the Muslim Brotherhood which opposes monarchy and favors a moderate form of Islamist government – moderate by Islamist standards, that is. Qatar too supports the Brotherhood, and for the same anti-Saudi reasons Turkey holds. Qatar’s widely-viewed news channel, Al Jazeera, is devoting considerable time to the incident. just as it did the 2012 Saudi-backed coup in Egypt which saw the massacre of some 900 members of the Brotherhood.
Having had dissidents assassinated and gravely injured by Putin’s emissaries, the British media and government are keenly interested in the Khashoggi case. It’s more nettlesome in the US. The Saudi dissident was a contributor to the Washington Post and his disappearance has drawn the interest of large parts of the US media. Khashoggi was in a sense of member of the guild and the matter will be pursued, all the more so if the Trump administration shows little substantive concern, even after widespread dismay over Saudi operations in Yemen that have led to many civilian casualties and considerable famine.
The administration has expressed concern and called for fuller information from the Kingdom. Whatever Khashoggi’s fate, it’s unlikely to fundamentally alter US-Saudi relations. Saudi Arabia is critical to US-Israeli policy in the region, especially the effort to cripple Iran. Furthermore, the Saudis purchase billions of dollars in US products, mostly in the high-paying defense sector.
Accordingly, the administration’s efforts to uncover the truth will be limited and the public’s interest in the case will be balanced by practical concerns.
Copyright 2018 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.