Brian M Downing
Wars bring formidable changes to countries, even if they are fortunate enough not to have fighting on their own soil. The US was transformed by the Second World War and Vietnam, both politically and culturally, in the course of only a few years. The Middle East was changed by both world wars, seeing European political collapse and colonization after the first and decolonization and strategic ascendance after the second.
Wars in the Middle East have been the rule for several decades now and are likely to continue for years to come. Signs of change are beginning to appear, most importantly in the center of the Sunni world and of the reaction against democracy – Saudi Arabia.
Increased sectarian hostility
Hostility between Sunnis and Shias may be the highest in centuries. Simmering over the years, hostility was heightened by the Iranian Revolution (1979) and Khomeini’s call for uprisings across the Islamic world. Though the Iranian leader’s exhortation was for all muslims to rise up, it was seen as a call for Shia uprisings. Little wonder, then, that the Sunni monarchies supported Saddam Hussein’s 1980 invasion of Iran and the ensuing years of bitter war.
Arab Spring demonstrations in the Sunni monarchies were seen through a highly sectarian lens and though both sects marched for political change, the princes saw Iranian-Shia subterfuge at hand. The princes have formed a league, headed by Riyadh, to fight democracy and Shias. The ascendance of ISIL has led them to coordinate their militaries to fight ISIL and Iran, though the latter is the former’s most formidable enemy.
Centered in the Eastern Province and the Yemeni frontier, the Shia of Saudi Arabia, are looked upon with suspicion, surveillance, and oppression. This may lead to a self-fulfilled prophecy as the Shias fight back and look to Tehran for support.
Reform
Riyadh’s dogged opposition to reform stems not only from sectarian concern, but also from the fear that democracy will lead to regional unrest and increasingly open opposition to the rule of a privileged family. The Saud family has sought to increase its popularity by presenting themselves as defenders of the Sunni world and fighting Shias in Syria and Yemen.
The air campaign against the Shias in Yemen has been popular. Saudis follow war news avidly and lionize their pilots. The effect is legitimization for the House of Saud, However, the air campaign has thus far brought no results and enthusiasm may dwindle. Questions are bound to arise about the reluctance to use ground troops and the competence of the lavishly appointed army led by the illustrious but unqualified sons of Saud.
Young Saudis – educated and informed – have seen their government crush reform movements in Yemen, Bahrain, and Egypt. They also saw their own Arab Spring movement stymied by security forces backed by Wahhabite fatwas. Their options are limited to resignation, emigration, or taking up arms one day.
Army
Saudi subjects, like the rest of the world, see their army reluctant to deploy against ISIL in Syria and Iraq and against the Houthis in Yemen. The paradox of a well-equipped army staying in the barracks while wars rage just to the north and south will not be lost on mid-level officers who feel stymied in their careers.
They know that the troops, for all their equipment and training, are neither spirited nor well led. Every corporal and captain knows that the brass have not reached positions of command through professional qualifications or wartime deeds; for the most part they are scions of the royal family and a network of sybaritic and obsequious clans. These elites are not only holding back political development but also endangering the country’s ability to defend itself.
Wahhabism
Riyadh has long spread Wahhabism in an effort to build popular support, both at home and abroad. Scholars may readily discern differences between the austere, anti-western Wahhabism and the warrior creeds of al Qaeda, ISIL, and the like. However, theological distinctions are of little interest to young men ardent for adventure and glory.
They see their country relying on the US for defense, just as it did during the Gulf War One. They also read reports that their leaders are aligned with Israel in opposition to Iran. Many must wonder if their leaders aren’t betraying their professed beliefs.
Saudi youths, many of whom have army training, have traveled north to fight with ISIL and al Qaeda where they will put into practice what their generals dare not attempt. They will return to Saudi Arabia one day – and find more than a few ardent followers.
© 2015 Brian M Downing
https://www.opednews.com/articles/War-and-change-in-Saudi-Ar-by-Brian-Downing-Army_Oppression_Reform_Security-150706-839.html
Brian M Downing is a political-military analyst, and author of The Military Revolution and Political Change and The Paths of Glory: Social Change in America from the Great War to Vietnam