News and commentary: August 21

Downing Reports

ISIL claims responsibility for Cairo bombing

It’s unclear if ISIL or ISIL-inspired actors are truly responsible. If true, ISIL is making inroads with young Egyptians angered over the coup that ousted the Muslim Brotherhood in 2013. The Egyptian army remains strong, so ISIL has little if any chance of conquering large parts of Egypt as it has in Syria and Iraq. ISIL can, however, ensconce itself with disgruntled urban dwellers and with tribes in Sinai. Look for the possibility of unrest in the Egyptian south.

North Korea places military on war-footing

This comes after an exchange of artillery with the South. Russia and China want North Korea to worry the US, force it to allocate resources in the region. They do not want a war. North Korea can be irksome, mercurial, and foolish, though. North Korea may fire artillery at South Korean loudspeakers that broadcast news into the North. They’ve done it before.

Relations between Iran and Kurdistan

This article minimizes the working relationship between Iraqi Kurds and Iran which goes back to the seventies and eighties when Iran supported them against Saddam Hussein. Iranian special forces have been helping the Kurds for years now and has offered to allow them to export their oil through Iran. That would be a boon to Kurdistan as it presently exports through Turkey and Sunni-Arab Iraq. Kurdistan wants options.

What about the restive Kurds in northwest Iran? The Kurds are far from a united people. They have tribal, political, and linguistic differences. Kurdistan will likely place greater priority on goos relations with Iran than on supporting separatism inside Iran.