Brian M Downing
Yesterday, in a decidedly informal press conference with Prime Minister Netanyahu, President Trump dropped American support for a two-state solution in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. He went on to say in passing that he would accept whatever solution the Israel government and Palestinian leadership arrived at. Meanwhile, expansion into the West Bank continues, though the president expressed a wish for holding back on more settlements “a little bit”.
This is a break with a longstanding American policy of pressing, albeit only intermittently and tepidly, for a Palestinian state. It is also the position of the European Union, United Nations, and most countries in the world.
The new president has demonstrated a gift for backtracking only rarely seen in a major power, so his remarks alongside Netanyahu may be disavowed or restated soon. In any case, Netanyahu’s government has never been serious about negotiations. What does the shift in US policy hold in store?
What’s the deal?
Donald Trump presents himself as a masterful dealmaker who will negotiate with Russia, China, Mexico, and other counties far more forcefully and effectively than did his predecessors. His artfulness will restore American greatness.
In pushing aside the issue of a Palestinian state, the president has given away something very valuable. Netanyahu has been granted a free hand to deal with the West Bank. This of course means continued settlements and creeping annexation. Palestinian objections will continue to be ignored and the occupation will continue.
It’s unclear what if anything the US gained from this concession. When Likud ministers celebrated the end of the two-state solution on election night, did they know of an impending deal? If there is one, the publics of both nations should be apprised of it as soon as possible. After all, many Israeli politicians and news sources are puzzled and angered by the new policy.
Palestinians
The Trump declaration and the recent rise in settlements, accompanied by the strategic dismantling of one lone settlement, will underscore what every Palestinian has known for years – the Likud government has no intention of allowing an independent Palestine.
Another intifada may be on the horizon, or at least an increase in the stabbings and vehicle-rammings which have become principal ways of striking back. Many Palestinians, seeing no hope for national aspirations or personal prospects, will forsake nationalist goals and look to international movements such as al Qaeda and ISIL.
Shin Bet, Israel’s domestic security organization, believes there are already several dozen Palestinians serving with such groups across the border in Syria, where they are learning more lethal ways of fighting back. Machiavellians inside the Likud government will see more potent resistance as a reason for further repression and for dismantling the Palestinian Authority.
Sunni powers
Netanyahu has convinced many Sunni Gulf states that Iran is a grave danger and that their attention is better devoted to rising Shia power than to the Palestinian matter. Sunni criticism has been rather quiet for several years now.
The end of the two-state process, accompanied by more settlements and growing unrest on the West Bank, may change that. If the monarchs remain quiet, their publics will not. The large youth cohort, already restive for reform and losing state subsidies as budgets tighten, will view their princes as betraying fellow Muslims and sidling to the United States and Israel. Mullahs, jihadis, and reformists will find avid listeners.
Inside Israel
The population of Israel is deeply divided. The West Bank is one of the most polarizing issues. Many see Trump and Netanyahu’s jovial collegiality as ending true democracy in their land and as beginning an ominous new era in which the majority are subjects and the headliners rule the land. Concerns are not confined to kibbutz residents and idealistic students. Many generals and security chiefs see the impending death of the Jewish ideal and a consolidation of power by the Religious Right.
Trump’s acquiescence to Netanyahu might wake up less than attentive American supporters of Israel and lead to a dialog with those in Israel who better grasp the nation’s trajectory. Israeli generals will be the most useful voices to point out that the country is heading for theocracy, dubious democracy, international isolation, and increasingly dangerous polarization.
Copyright 2017 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who has written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs.