Brian M Downing
ISIL continues to demonstrate not only its brutality but also its determination and effectiveness. Their Salafist-apocalyptic creed supersedes the tribal antagonisms and ill-regard for leaders that weaken other armies of the region, make them less stable, and force them to rely on foreign militaries.
Despite a string of defeats at Kobane, Sinjar, Tikrit, Ramadi, and Fallujah, where it has suffered high casualties, ISIL morale remains high. It has put up fierce resistance in Mosul, where Iraqi special forces are being ground down. In Syria, as the battle for Reqqa is nearing, ISIL has been able to launch surprising campaigns, retaking Palmyra and attacking Deir al Zor in central and eastern Syria, respectively.
Why such campaigns in remote parts of the region when major battles loom elsewhere?
Diversion?
One explanation for the campaigns might be to divert troops away from major battles elsewhere in Syria. ISIL is still fighting in the north outside Aleppo and along the Turkish border. To the east the Syrian Democratic Forces, an American-backed force of Arabs, Turkmen, and Kurds, is preparing to attack Reqqa, though the fierce battle for Mosul may be causing the US and SDF to rethink the timing.
The center and eastern areas where ISIL has struck are not presently high on the priority list for any rebel groups. The area is barren, save for a few towns and isolated government installations. Damascus has taken heavy casualties at Aleppo, is eyeing Idlib, and is unlikely to divert troops to secondary or tertiary sectors.
Perhaps the most important problem with interpreting the ISIL campaigns as a diversion is that they also divert a substantial number of ISIL fighters away from more strategically important areas. And ISIL’s troops are far fewer in number than those fighting it.
Redoubt
Though ISIL leaders have not demonstrated any loss of faith, it’s possible that they see defeat lurking at Mosul. They may be able to cripple the few good battalions Baghdad can field, but the numbers will still be against them. Less zealous minds are looking for a more defensible region from which the effort can be continued.
Central and eastern Syria, and western Iraq, may be that defensible region. There are no large cities in that wasteland to cause embarrassment in regional and western capitals which would lead to determined efforts to retake it. The distance from Baghdad and Damascus presents formidable logistical troubles for government armies. And local populations are hostile to their Shia governments, though hardly amenable to ISIL’s austere government.
The area is forbidding but it has advantages. First, holding even remote, barren territory confers a measure of credibility of being a state and future caliphate. Without land, ISIL will be another network of mad bombers. Better to reign in the wasteland than perish in the cities.
Second, proximity to the long borders with Jordan, the West Bank, and Saudi Arabia will allow supplies and recruits to reach fighting units, albeit with difficulty. ISIL fighters are increasingly cut off from old supply lines through Turkey.
Third, the sparse population will reduce the costs of repression which must have been high in Mosul and other cities. ISIL could work out arrangements with local tribes unhappy with rulers in faraway capitals. Islamist groups have done this in Egypt, Yemen, and Afghanistan. ISIL might learn from this.
Fourth, both Jordan and Saudi Arabia have large youth cohorts, high unemployment, and governments of questionable stability – suitable conditions for recruiting. And of course the flow of men and materiel into the wasteland redoubt may one day be reversed and flow into the wealthy Kingdom and toward the gates of Jerusalem.
Copyright 2017 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who has written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs
Good piece. ISIS is like Michael Meyers in Haloween. It just keeps coming back.
You just outlined the perfect opportunity for our new president to score some points. If he commits to a joint anti-ISIS campaign with Russia, any approximation of success will be a victory. If Trump manages to stick around for more than a year, any joint efforts against terrorism with Russia could make it tough to restart the trillion dollar pay day called the new cold war.
Ironically, the otherwise extremely repulsive Trump can be a peacemaker and big money saver while the Democrats shameless embrace of McCarthyism exposes the true poverty of that party.