Brian M Downing
Once Aleppo is completely taken and reasonably secure, Assad and Putin will turn their attention to the last rebel city in the west, Idlib. Their tactics of intensive airstrikes followed by ground assaults are effective, if inhumane. The rebels have no protection from Russian aircraft. Their foreign backers are thus far unwilling to provide them with Manpads and similar weapons from Qadaffi’s looted arsenals have yet to appear in theater.
What’s next? Assad has been confined to his bunker where he is heartened if not emboldened with stirring reports of victories over “terrorists”. He occasionally speaks of reuniting the demesne his father bequeathed him.
Putin is probably more attuned to reality. But he sees the West driven to silence and inaction and knows, as every world leader does, that he is willing to use military force where others will not. Surely he sees advantages to pressing the point by setting his sights on the rest of Syria. But there are obstacles. They are likely more visible from the Kremlin than from a Damascus bunker.
Rebel positions in the west
Though Assad has retaken much of western Syria, there are still pockets of resistance. Some are just to the north of Aleppo and Idlib where they are under Turkish protection. The Free Syrian Army, once backed by Washington, leans now toward Ankara. Erdogan has recruited them to serve as buffers against ISIL and as watchdogs against Kurdish militias aligned with brethren in southeastern Turkey.
Rebels are also present in the south not far from Damascus. The area east of the Golan Heights is held by rebels backed by Israel, sometimes with air and artillery support. Israeli efforts to convince the local Druze population to break from Damascus have thus far failed, but Assad will never be allowed to reassert control.
The Kurds control much of the territory along the Turkish border and have been establishing local government. Assad has already signaled acceptance of Kurdish autonomy, as long as they do not align with the rebel movement in general. The Kurds are the fiercest and most successful foes of ISIL and share Assad’s hostility toward Turkey.
Further, Damascus must know that at this point the Kurds are armed and experienced, and more than able to wear down if not repel an attempted reconquest by Assad’s forces. The Kurds are poised to take the ISIL capital of Reqqa. The city is not Kurdish but they will use it as a bargaining chip with Damascus.
The east
The prospects of reconquest might seem more promising in eastern Syria. Much of it is empty wasteland and the Syrian military has a few garrisons holding out there. The rest is part of ISIL’s supposed caliphate, but that is steadily shrinking and on the verge of losing its twin capitals in Syria and Iraq. Two able divisions, if they could be safely redeployed from the west – no safe bet, this – could, with Russian air support, retake the east and reach the Iraqi border.
Syrian troops, however, are already stretched thin and likely drained from protracted fighting over the years and high casualties in Aleppo. The ease with which ISIL retook Palmyra in recent days demonstrates this. A determined campaign in the east might meet with little effective resistance but at the cost of weakening positions elsewhere and inviting rebel counteroffensives.
Such a campaign would trigger alarms among the Sunnis of Anbar in Iraq and the Sunni monarchies. The move will be interpreted as part of a Shia effort to subjugate the Sunnis of the region and further strengthen the Shia crescent running from Tehran to the Mediterranean. Money and arms might flow into Anbar and eastern Syria.
Sunnis in the region are greatly angered by the Russian-Shia assault on Aleppo. Today’s assassination of the Russian ambassador to Turkey, evidently by a Turkish security guard avenging Aleppo, is likely an example. It might also be a portent of Sunni resolve to continue the war in Syria, Iraq, and elsewhere – including Russia.
Copyright 2016 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who has written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs.