Egypt comes down hard – and clumsily
Brian M Downing
Amnesty International reported this week that Egyptian security and judicial authorities are responsible for torturing and disappearing hundreds of dissidents. Egypt has long had trouble with terrorism. The assassination of Anwar Sadat in 1981and frequent attacks on tourist sites are the best known cases.
Security forces claim they are clamping down on al Qaeda, ISIL, and similar groups. But the rise of terrorism is mostly the result of the military coup, supported if not directed by Saudi Arabia, that ousted the elected Muslim Brotherhood government, killed several hundred supporters, and restored the power of the old oligarchy – with the army in the driver’s seat.
The oligarchy’s harsh methods will further alienate large parts of the public, a slight majority of which voted for the Brotherhood. More people will support terrorism or at least not cooperate with authorities. Tribes on the periphery are working with jihadis. Security will continue to deteriorate.
Saudi Arabia
The Muslim Brotherhood’s goal of political reform, including forming a mass popular movement and ending monarchy, conflicts sharply with Saudi interests. The Arab Spring, and the election of a Brotherhood government in Egypt, caused shudders in the Kingdom. Riyadh withheld aid and oil subsidies to Egypt, causing public discontent, and encouraged the army to seize power. It did.
Egypt is now a ward of the Saudi state. The Saudis know their own military is ineffective, so they disburse subsidies to gain influence in, and loyalty from, foreign armies. Pakistan has long benefited from Saudi largesse. Its troops have been deployed in the kingdom for years and its veterans fill out Saudi security units, most notably the ones used to suppress Bahrain’s Arab Spring. The loyalty of Egypt’s army would greatly add to Saudi power.
Though denied by Saudi officials, the Muslim Brotherhood has a sizable following among the Kingdom’s subjects. They watch repression in Egypt and conclude that the same fate awaits them should they challenge the monarchy. With reform impossible, other means of bringing change must be considered.
Outside the Brotherhood, other reform-minded subjects see their rulers spend money on Egyptian repression, Syrian rebels, Yemeni troops, Pakistani mercenaries, and Salafi schools across the Islamic world. As oil prices remain low, these expenditures require less spending at home.
The United States
Washington was pleased to see the Mubarak oligarchy driven out. It was less than pleased to see the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafi parties gain over seventy percent of the seats in the legislature, and even less so to see the military coup, which ended not only the Muslim Brotherhood government, but democratic processes as well.
The US opted not to break with the military government as that would remove its influence and solidify that of Saudi Arabia. Egyptian repression will nonetheless strengthen anti-American sentiment as at least some of the government’s aid and equipment come from Washington. American interests will be on hit lists.
Israel
The Muslim Brotherhood is an international movement that Israel sees as capable of coalescing formidable political and military pressure. The ouster of the Brotherhood’s government in Cairo was welcome, but the new regime presents two long-term concerns.
First, power is now concentrated in the military, even more so than under Mubarak. An ideology may develop in the military which aims to avenge past defeats and obeisance to the US and Israel. Such an ideology would find broad popular support. Full war is unlikely, as Egypt would have no ally to the east and is no match for the IDF. Egyptian actions would be troop movements, border skirmishes, air duels, and clandestine shipments to Palestinians.
Second, the rising influence of Saudi Arabia is a concern, especially if Riyadh is one day able to create loyal polities in Libya, Syria, and Iraq.
It might be preferred that Egypt remains in turmoil, its army concerned with internal security and secessionist movements in the periphery, especially Sinai. And Saudi Arabian coffers steadily draining not only in Egypt, but in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen as well.
Copyright 2016 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who has written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs.