Russia – and Armenia – up the ante against Turkey

Russia and the area that’s now Turkey got along back in the Middle Ages. Muscovite princes sent pelt-filled barges down the Dnieper to Byzantine princes. Relations have been rather bad since then. The two countries fought in the First World War and a half century before that, several European powers aided the Turks in what became the Crimean War.

Vladimir Putin is challenging Turkey now. He is testing Turkey’s resolve as well as that of the NATO powers, which are tied to Turkey. An ancient region and new post-soviet republic is figuring in the contest – Armenia.

Syria, Turkey, and Armenia

Russia has long had a naval base at Tartus, Syria, about eighty miles south of the border with Turkey. After NATO airpower brought down Russia’s ally, Libya, Putin is determined not to lose another position on the Mediterranean. Last fall, he sent several squadrons of aircraft to Syria to bolster the embattled government, and began expansion of an airbase in Latkia, about twenty-five miles south of Turkey.

Armenia is now figuring in the conflict. Russia and Armenia share an antipathy for Turkey – the former on longstanding geopolitical tensions, the latter over Turkish nationalism which led to horrific slaughter of Armenians in the last century. Over the weekend, Russia deployed MiG-29 combat aircraft to the Erebuni airfield in Armenia, which shares a border with Turkey. Russia also maintains an army base at Gyumri, five miles from the Turkish border – which is in dispute.

The move will also alarm Georgia to Armenia’s north, which was invaded and all but partitioned by Russia in 2008. Georgia may be entering NATO in coming years, perhaps all the sooner now.

Turkey is almost certainly watching now for Russian aircraft to cross into its airspace from the east. They might do well to look for the same from Russia’s newly reacquired military bases in the Crimea, a hundred miles to the north. A mothballed airfield at Khersones, just outside the naval base of Sebastopol, is being modernized.

The Kurds of Syria and Turkey

Syrian and Turkish Kurds present a dilemma for the US. On the one hand, they’ve put up fierce resistance to ISIL – a welcome rarity in the region. On the other, they are enemies of Turkey, a US ally and NATO partner. The chief Turkish group, the PKK, is on the US terror list.

Syrian and Turkish Kurds present an opportunity for Russia. Allying with them strengthens, albeit slightly, Russia’s dubious claim of leading the fight against ISIL. It presents the possibility of separating the Syrian Kurds from the US. Most importantly, it offers a dangerous internal threat to Turkey. Putin is unlikely to pass by this opportunity. Potential costs are limited, potential gains are large.

NATO

Moscow will be watching how NATO reacts to aerial intrusions and support for the Kurds. Covert or open support for the Kurdish insurgency in southeastern Turkey will be an especially nettlesome issue for NATO powers.

The principle of self-determination espoused by Turkish (and other) Kurds is not without resonance with western ideals. Indeed, one can hardly think of the principle without thinking of Woodrow Wilson and the Versailles conference which squashed the Kurds’s appeal for self-determination. Britain and France proceeded to carve up the Middle East, placing the Kurds in four different countries.

Kurds today are admired in the West. They have inflicted serious losses on ISIL. In some quarters, Iranian Kurds are seen as valiant foes of mullahs and generals in Tehran.

Turkish Kurds have renewed their insurgency against Ankara but have generally avoided civilian targets that would solidify their position on western terror lists. Instead, they concentrate on Turkish military and security forces.

By contrast, western publics generally dislike the Turkish government. It’s seen as Islamist, intolerant, and eager to inch toward authoritarianism. Regardless of clauses in the NATO Treaty, western publics will not be swift to come to Turkey’s defense.

 

Opposition to Russian support for the PKK might be strongest in Russia’s strongest ally in the region – Iran. Tehran will look unfavorably on any further autonomy or independence for the Kurds, as it will only strengthen the determination of its own Kurdish population. Russia might be reminded that its own Muslim population is restive – and located only a few hundred miles from Kurdish region, Syria, and Turkey.

Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who has written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs.

Copyright 2016 Brian M Downing