News & comment

Oil at $10 a barrel?

Oil prices have been sinking for well over a year now and have reached $30/bbl, down from about $90 in 2014. This is of course due to less demand in the world and also from rising US production. Low prices will gravely hurt oil-producing countries such as Venezuela and Saudi Arabia which are far more depends on oil than most other producers.

ISIL presses on Libyan oil facilities

Seeking to gain a major revenue source, ISIL is trying to get control of oil fields in the south and export terminals along the Mediterranean coast. ISIL launched a sea-borne attack on Zueitina, which is roughly halfway between two ISIL strongholds, Sirte and Benghazi. The attack was repelled. As noted here before, smuggling oil out of Libya will be more difficult than getting it out of Syria. Ships leaving Libyan ports, even small ships, can be better controlled than truck traffic along the long, chaotic Syrian-Turkish border.

Syrian Druze population forms militias

The Druze are a sect of Islam or a distinct religion, depending on how the matter is defined. Syrian Druze are located chiefly in the south, near the Golan Heights. The Druze no longer feel the Syrian government can protect them from internal violence and from ISIL. Accordingly, they are forming their own self-protection forces, much as Syrian Kurds have to the north. Look for Israel to work with these Druze forces as they will provide a buffer between Israel and the Syrian government and rebel groups. This is another step in the fragmentation of Syria.