The US has announced an impending deployment of an unspecified number of special forces troops – probably rangers, SEALs, and Delta Force. They will operate in Iraq, where the government has authorized them, and in Syria, where the government has not. Russian president Putin is watching.
Why
The move, announced rather quietly by Sec of Defense Carter, comes after a flurry of foreign moves against ISIL by Russia, France, and even Germany. Britain is poised to enter the fray as well.
There has been domestic pressure for greater progress in the ISIL War, though it has not been especially heated, neither in congress nor in the public. The GOP field has expressed concern over the war but without articulating a clear vision of what to do.
The move will strengthen the US position in any impending talks. Thus far, US aid has been limited, the Free Syrian Army is almost insignificant, and efforts to build another ground force have come to nought. The US, for all its global might, has few cards to play.
The White House felt pressure to do something to match the Kremlin’s deployment of advisers and air support to the beleaguered Syrian government. The recent deployment of advisers to rebel headquarters was manifestly pointless. So, the US is pushing more chips forward. The move is aimed as much at Russia as it is ISIL.
Missions
The SF troops will not serve as trainers as with recent deployments. They will perform hostage rescues, kill/capture missions on ISIL and possibly al Qaeda chieftains, and conduct raids on Islamist command and logistics centers.
In that such missions have already been performed, we can expect more of them. They will force ISIL to withdraw troops from front lines in order to defend heretofore safe rear areas. This will make the work of Iraqi, Kurdish, and other allied ground troops somewhat easier. The missions will also seek to inflict high casualties in what has become a war of attrition – causing more deaths and injuries than ISIL can counter with recruits.
Risks
These missions may of course lead to US casualties. Indeed, a recent hostage rescue mission cost the life of a senior sergeant. Casualties from even greatly augmented SF operations are unlikely to come near those suffered at the height of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Political consequences from casualties will be limited.
Washington is pushing forward more chips – against ISIL and indirectly against Russia. Moscow will soon respond, perhaps with its own special forces operations, even though they may already be stretched thin with deployments in the Ukraine.
Moscow is also eager to respond to Turkey’s shoot down of an SU-24 last week. Russian special forces may be called upon to strike alleged ISIL oil and supply assets along the Turkish border – both sides of it.
©2015 Brian M Downing