Brian M Downing
Europe hasn’t been this unstable since the Second World War. That presents dangers and opportunities. Most of Turkey lies in Asia but it’s in NATO (if barely), seeks EU membership, and historically fights Russia. Tsars and general secretaries have long wanted to control the Dardanelles-Bosporous straits. Putin wants to dominate the strategic waterway. Not even Stalin achieved that that.
Washington is shifting toward Moscow and is no longer reliable. Erdogan must worry that if Putin takes Ukraine, he’ll look south, perhaps before he looks to the Baltics. Erdogan is positioned to thwart Putin and take a large step toward his goal of restoring Turkish greatness. He can’t take Vienna but he might well impress Brussels.
The past
Ever since Muscovy began to build an empire long ago, it came up against the Turks. Moscow wanted access to the Mediterranean – a prize that would give great commercial opportunities and power prestige. Numerous wars took place, the most memorable of which was the Crimean War (1853-56). It saw Britain and France unite with the Ottomans to defeat Russia.
Alliances shifted back then too and a jarring one took place less than a half century later. In the First World War, Britain and France aligned with Russia against Germany, Austro-Hungary, and the Ottomans. The former powers agreed that victory would see Moscow controlling the Dardanelles. However, Russia left the war and control stayed with the Turks.
Turkey entered NATO after World War Two and anchored the alliance’s southeastern flank for decades. As Erdogan sought to restore Turkey’s prestige in the world, he triangulated between Russia and the US. Fearful of losing a strategic asset, each side gave him considerable leeway. He leaned back toward NATO when Putin invaded Ukraine three years ago. He blocked Russian warships from entering the Black Sea, provided drones that blunted early drives, and more recently, with Ukrainian help, helped HTS oust Assad and endanger Russian bases in Syria.
The present
The US is no longer trustworthy. In fact, it’s aligning with Russia and pressing hard for Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire. No one believes it would be anything more than a breather for Putin to rebuild his military before going for the knockout. Moscow would control the northern Black Sea coast from Romania to Georgia. Putin will want the Dardanelles, either through conquest or intimidation. He must secure lines of communication to positions in N Africa and the Middle East. He also wants to settle scores with Erdogan for toppling Assad.
Erdogan knows this as well as anyone in Brussels. He can begin air and sea maneuvers in the eastern Mediterranean to signal the ability to close off the Dardanelles to all Russian shipping. He may threaten or actually strike hollowed out and defenseless Russian bases in Syria.
Most significantly,Turkey can send troops: first to Georgia to thwart the ongoing Russian takeover there, then to Ukraine, either as a formidable peacekeeping force or as allies to beleaguered Ukrainian troops. A reasonable analyst may see it as risky but essential to Turkish security.
Europe should encourage him. Western arms can flow generously. Joint maneuvers in the eastern Mediterranean and perhaps the Black Sea should be forthcoming and sizable. Europe can waive longstanding reservations about Turkey’s democracy and human rights and invite Turkey into the EU. Erdogan is well ahead of Putin on those issues and the boon will strengthen Turkey economically and militarily. Helping Erdogan restore national greatness will benefit Europe – paradoxically, at a time when America’s parallel pursuit entails abandoning democracy and allies.
©2025 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.