Brian M Downing
The business world welcomed Trump’s reelection. Lower taxes and fewer regulations would bring remarkable prosperity. It’s basic economics from Adam Smith to Milton Friedman. Trump is banking on prosperity to prevent discontent after he weakens democracy. However, other Trump policies may be harmful to the general public and also big businesses – or at least most of them.
Businesses require a stable political and legal environment. Without it, they cannot make informed decisions on investment and hiring. Trump is erratic. He threatens tariffs, then backs off only to threaten again. The prospect of inflation is ignored. DOGE fires people then calls some of them back in a week. The executive is rising above the other two branches of government, threatening the constitutional order that’s served the country well since the days of Washington and Jefferson. Trump is preparing to use his Justice Department to settle scores and intimidate. He is the state. But what comes after him? Businesses don’t want a deluge.
The administration is concentrating economic power as well. Contracts go to friends and associates. Wealth has been accumulating at the top for some time. The Gini Index shows that. Powerful wealthy strata formed long ago but an elite is rising on top of them. Some businesses are more equal than others. Businesses outside the club must get on board or face consequences – lost contracts, SEC investigations, favors to competitors. Trump’s new power arrangements are akin to the ones Putin and Mohammed bin Salman lord over. Little wonder the three men are aligning.
The president’s dismissiveness and insults toward other countries, including allies in numerous wars, is tarnishing the American brand image. Purchasers abroad look more circumspectly on our capital goods, banks, heavy equipment, apparel, entertainment products, high tech, and spirits. European and Asian equivalents are less off-putting. Global arms sales have done well in the last decade as a Sino-Russian block seeks to assert itself. General Dynamics, Boeing, and Raytheon have been benefiting. However, uncertainty about the president’s strategic vision and loyalty may cause allies to look elsewhere for their security.
Stock markets and real estate have been booming since the 2008 crash but tariffs and trade wars may soon bring a sharp recession. Moody’s and Warren Buffett are worried. The Wall Street Journal warns “the world economy could face a crash similar to the Great Depression.” Historically low unemployment figures may jump and buoyant bottom lines may plummet. The new oligarchy may not recognize the names Smoot and Hawley, Ricardo and Friedman.
Businesses welcome tax cuts and deregulation. They don’t want crony capitalism, tariffs, inflation, shrinking foreign markets, or a departure from America’s political-legal system. They must use their influence in congress to rein in the oligarchs and bring back checks and balances. Democracy is good for business after all.
©2025 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.