Brian M Downing
The US has begun airstrikes on the Houthis of N Yemen. The effort isn’t likely to be brief as with many retaliatory operations. Trump has a larger agenda in the Middle East and the foreign policy machinery which assesses risks and likelihoods is barely working today.
The Houthis, a Shia group movement in the north, rose to power as an opposition to Saudi influence in the country, north and south. Civil war broke out in 2015. Iran backed the north, the Saudis and Emiratis sided with the south. Sunni campaigns faltered, Houthi counteroffensives came up short, and a Saudi brigade that crossed into Yemen was cut to pieces. Stalemate set in.
The war took on a broader dimension. After the Hamas war erupted in 2023, the Houthis fired missiles on Israeli and pro-Israel ships in the Red Sea, including American naval vessels. The new conflict has dragged on but strategic fortunes haven’t favored the Houthis. Syria is under Sunni control. Hisbollah is weak after years of war and under continuous attack from Israel and the new regime in Damascus. Iran remains supportive but it’s had the same strategic woes and supply lines are increasingly difficult.
The new administration in Washington is closely aligned with the Israeli Right and the Saudi monarchy. All three have a new vision for the region and are eager to show overwhelming power, especially toward Iran and remaining proxies. The US will pound N Yemen, Israel will finish Gaza, then attention will turn to the Shia metropole, Iran.
The US campaign will be more devastating than might be expected. Previous punitive strikes by Israel, the US, and Britain haven’t stopped the Houthis. Principles on proportional responses and collateral damage are in disarray. Putin leveled cities in Syria and Ukraine. Netanyahu’s attacks on Gaza have shown similar disregard. Trump wants to signal, in no uncertain terms, that he will act much more forcefully in the world than his predecessors and that he’s now aligned with authoritarian principles, not democratic ones.
The airstrikes will likely go on for weeks or months. Air defenses are being put out of action, making other targets more vulnerable. Power production and water purification plants could be targeted. Northern ports may be blockaded and shipping facilities leveled.
Iran isn’t capable of aid. It may not be able to continue supplies. If the Houthi attacks on Red Sea ships relent, either because they decide to do so or simply run out of munitions, the US campaign will nonetheless continue. The aim is to demonstrate power, devastate N Yemen, and set the stage for a possible Sunni offensive from the south and a Saudi one from the north, ending Houthi control.
Reliable soldiers aren’t in theater. Sunni Yemenis are war weary, Saudi troops are inept. Since the war began ten years ago, Riyadh has pressured Egypt and Pakistan – both recipients of Saudi largesse – to commit troops, but they’ve resisted. A year ago US troops would be out of the question. But Trump is determined to show his iron will and the thrall he has over congress, military, and state will prevent circumspection.
©2025 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.