Russian leverage in the Syrian war
(It’s a lot more than the US has)
Brian M Downing
Syria, in war and peace, has been an object in the foreign policies of several countries, including the US and Russia. Now, with the war entering a new, disturbingly violent phase, a search for a political solution has become more urgent. The solution isn’t closer at hand, the search is just more urgent – at least in some camps.
The US is accustomed to playing a major role, if not the preeminent one, in solving almost all international problems. This isn’t so in Syria. The US has no influence with the Assad government, little with the array of rebel armies, and less with the Sunni states than it once did. Russia has critical leverage with Syria and considerable influence most countries engaged in the war. And Russia wants to reestablish itself as a world power – at the expense of the US.
Syria
Between the 9/11 attacks and the outset of war in Syria, Washington and the Assad government were in cautious but promising dialog. Assad sought better relations with the West, shared intelligence on al Qaeda, and began to reduce the oligarchy’s control of the economy. There were hopes he would liberalize the political system too, but that was unlikely five years ago. It’s out of the question now.
Russia is Assad’s chief backer. Hisbollah and Iran are important, too, but Russia has delivered money, arms, airpower, and political support, and holds a UN veto on any international action. In recent weeks Russia and Syria have developed and put into practice a tactic of pulverizing urban areas, civilian and rebel alike, in order to gain a relatively uncostly victory. The tactic is pitiless, inhumane, and effective.
Indications are that Syria will be home to a significant Russian military assets for the foreseeable future. It has long had a naval base at Tartus. The rapidly put together airbase near Latakia is being expanded for a long stay. Both sites are now defended by the most up-to-date air defense system, which extends into the Middle East and Mediterranean Sea. Syria will be to Russia what Qatar and Bahrain are to the United States.
Iran
Second to Russia in support for Syria, is Iran. Once aligned with the US against the Soviet Union, Iran moved closer to Russia after the ’79 Revolution and it is its most powerful ally, besides China. Moscow is delivering its most sophisticated air defense system to the IRGC. It’s range will extend across the Persian Gulf, into the Arabian Sea, and well into Iraq – perhaps interlocking with similar systems in Syria.
Russian supplies and encouragement allow Iran to shake its fist at the US presence in the region. This allows the mullahs and generals to put off calls for reform and to justify their firm grip on power.
Russia will be able to press Iran on a future settlement in Syria – one that might not be as attractive as it is in Moscow. For example, Tehran wants Assad to stay in power; he is a fungible asset to Moscow.
Saudi Arabia
Throughout much of the Cold War, Saudi Arabia and the Soviet Union were enemies. Not simply due to the latter’s official atheism and the former’s professed religiousness, but also due to Soviet support for republican governments in Egypt, Syria, and Iraq, and Saudi preference for monarchy. Hostility was fiercest during the war in Afghanistan in the eighties when Riyadh funneled troops and money into the resistance.
More recently, as the US softened its stance toward Iran, and stepped up calls for political reform in the region, Riyadh has moved closer to Moscow. It buys Russian (and Chinese) arms – to the detriment of US defense contractors and employment levels. And it has no worries of calls for political reform from Vladimir Putin.
Russia’s balancing act with Iran and Saudi Arabia will be ingesting to watch over the years. Nearer term, Russia is positioned to exert pressure on the rival states in a Syrian settlement. Indeed, it is far better positioned to do so than any other country, including the United States.
Turkey
Enmity between Russia and Turkey goes back several centuries and continued into the Cold War era. Only last year relations deteriorated as Russia intervened in Syria and lost one of its aircraft to Turkish fire.
More recently, though, the importance of trade led to rapprochement. Only this week the two states inked a gas deal. The West’s criticism of President Erdogan’s authoritarian lurch, before and after last summer’s failed coup, led to closer ties with the more accommodating power to the north.
Russia could work with Turkey on a Syrian settlement. Russia could recognize Turkey’s interests inside Syria, including an array of Sunni statelets that abide by a ceasefire with Damascus and keep Kurdish militias in check.
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No settlement will come easily in Syria, but Russia is best positioned to move important actors toward ending or at least easing the war. Success, however, will bring continuous troubles for Russia as it tries to keep several countries and rebel factions from open warfare. Russia may be content in excluding the US from an important part of Middle Eastern diplomacy for the first time since World War Two.
Copyright 2016 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who has written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs.