Brian M Downing
Donald Trump is taking America from constitutional democracy to populist authoritarianism. It’s going well. The chief executive is imposing his will as congress looks on. He returned the portrait of Andrew Jackson to the Oval Office to signal determination to ignore the Court, just as Old Hickory did.
Democracy has been weakening for decades. It was once the sacred legacy of Madison and Jefferson that prevailed and emerged strengthened amid domestic turmoil and costly wars. Political scandals, foreign blunders, and lackluster leaders undermined democracy’s sacredness and, for many, government became soulless machinery that gives people things.
In the last election, about one-third of eligible voters supported a conventional candidate, another third opted for an authoritarian one, and the rest stayed home. The last cohort grew since 2020, despite an obvious impending watershed.
Trump and elite backers understood democracy’s frailty better than congress, courts, and academia. Their plan is unfolding. It’s happening here. However, they know their relationship with working-class supporters is tenuous. They must maintain substantial support from below to further the plan. Ceaușescu, Batista, and others learned that too late. The wrong people are learning from history.
Trump et al have several ways of keeping popular support. Most of them solidify their rule.
Displays of determined action, such as signing executive orders and making provocative statements, go on everyday. They show will and progress. But the ritual can become stale and uninspiring.
Deregulation, tax cuts, tariffs will foster spectacular growth. Jobs will return from overseas, wages will rise, a dynamic economy will give people things. That’s the promise. It may come but right now stock markets, real estate prices, and consumer confidence are dropping and even the staid Wall Street Journal is warning of a serious downturn. Nonetheless, the president’s following is fiercely loyal, forgiving of his faults, and unlikely to turn on him for quite some time.
Trump railed against cultural changes taking place since the sixties. His base sees affirmative action, LBGT policies, immigration flows, and progressive history texts as undesirable, unjust, or even evil. Trump is using his powers to roll them back.
Fighting crime was also central to the campaign message. Armed federal officers are already conducting raids to round up immigrants, only some of whom have criminal records. Raids may soon hit drug lords, street gangs, organized crime networks, and perhaps eventually anyone deemed un-American.
Military action has historically enjoyed popular support, at least initially. In recent weeks, the administration has struck ISIL targets and threatened Gazans. An air campaign on the Houthis of North Yemen has begun. Given the collapse of norms governing warfare, it will likely be protracted and brutal, perhaps along the lines of Russian operations in Syria and Ukraine.
Territorial acquisition in the Spanish-American War caused Congressional furor. Land grabs were what European depots did, not Americium presidents. Laws were passed requiring eventual independence. Trump gave an honored place to the portrait of James Polk who launched a war with Mexico and seized much of what’s now the American Southwest. Expansion is back in view, congressional opposition isn’t on the horizon.
Panama and Greenland may be occupied and Canada pressed to at least grant concessions on natural resources and bases in the Arctic. The foreboding region is rich in untapped resources – and indefensible. The US and Russia could cooperate there, as well as in Europe.
©2025 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.