Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing Putin is facing defeat in Ukraine and that will bring deep turmoil to Russia. He will confront opposition from elites and the public. He may be ousted or he may use his considerable wiles to stay in power. Four scenarios will be looked at in this series: Read More …
Brian M Downing Wars build states and bring them down as well. Most states were built on and base their legitimacy on military victory. That was true in Charlemagne’s day, Napoleon’s, and Stalin’s too. Defeat, even without surrender or foreign occupation, undermines governments. The French state was staggered by losses Read More …
Brian M Downing Putin’s army has been defeated at Kyiv, the Donbas, Kharkiv, and now Kherson. It’s no longer capable of offensive operations and may be incapable of holding anywhere along the expansive but receding front. Russia will be fortunate if winter halts Ukrainian operations. Either way, the Russian army Read More …
Brian M Downing The Russian army has been defeated at Kyiv, the Donbas, Kharkiv, and now Kherson. It’s running out of hi-tech weapons and Ukraine is getting more and more of them everyday. Putin’s forces are no longer capable of offensive operations and may be incapable of holding anywhere even Read More …
Brian M Downing Putin’s war on Ukraine is in its ninth month. Offensives in the north and east have failed. His army has lost the initiative and cannot regain it in the foreseeable future, probably not for years. Casualties have been staggering, supply systems are unreliable, and poorly trained and Read More …
Brian M Downing Ukrainian offensives around Kharkiv and Kherson have retaken swathes of land. They’ve also snared tens of thousands of prisoners – a startling and useful development. Several thousand have been recruited into a NATO-backed formation that will fight Russia, effect further territorial fragmentation, and ultimately depose Vladimir Putin. Read More …
Brian M Downing Putin, facing dire manpower problems in Ukraine, has ordered mobilization of 300,000 reservists. It sounds more formidable than it is. Few reservists have anything more than basic training, which in Russia is cursory and almost meaningless. Industry can’t adequately equip them. The army doesn’t have cadres to Read More …
Brian M Downing China and Russia were enemies for centuries as the tsars expanded from the Urals to the Pacific and took Chinese territory along the way. Even when both states were overtly communist, there were tensions and even border skirmishes over territory. The bloodiest one, in 1969, led to Read More …
Brian M Downing Attention has long focused on the south where 20,000 Russian troops are isolated west of the Dnipro. A Ukrainian offensive there seemed imminent.That may still come, but a few days ago the Ukrainians drove east from the northern city of Kharkiv. The results have been astonishing. About Read More …